A Extra Hawkish Fed Is Negatively Impacting The Markets – Technically Talking

Bull and Bear Symbol with Stock Market Concept.

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First, let’s evaluate final week’s financial information.

CPI continues to extend:

The Shopper Value Index for All City Customers (CPI-U) elevated 0.5 % in December on a seasonally adjusted foundation after rising 0.8 % in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported at this time. Over the past 12 months, the all objects index elevated 7.0 % earlier than seasonal adjustment.

This is a chart of the information:

Core and Total CPI Y/Y

Core and Complete CPI Y/Y


Thus far there isn’t a indication of a topping, which is a matter for policymakers.

The next chart reveals the larger drawback:

3 6, and 12-Month Averages of Y/Y Change in Core and Total CPI

3 6, and 12-Month Averages of Y/Y Change in Core and Complete CPI

Knowledge from Fred; Writer’s Calculations

The above chart reveals the three, 6, and 12-month averages of the Y/Y proportion change in whole and core CPI. All of the averages are rising and the shorter are above the longer. That signifies that all of the tendencies will proceed to maneuver greater.

PPI can also be operating sizzling:

The Producer Value Index for closing demand elevated 0.2 % in December, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported at this time. This rise adopted advances of 1.0 % in November and 0.6 % in October. (See desk A.) On an unadjusted foundation, closing demand costs moved up 9.7 % in 2021, the biggest calendar-year improve since knowledge had been first calculated in 2010.

This is a chart of the information:

Total and core PPI Y/Y percent change

Complete and core PPI Y/Y % change


Just like the CPI knowledge, the PPI knowledge continues to be rising.

Retail gross sales declined:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and meals providers gross sales for December 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and vacation and trading-day variations, however not for value adjustments, had been $626.8 billion, a lower of 1.9 % (±0.5 %) from the earlier month, however 16.9 % (±0.9 %) above December 2020. Complete gross sales for the 12 months of 2021 had been up 19.3 % (±0.5 %) from 2020. Complete gross sales for the October 2021 by way of December 2021 interval had been up 17.1 % (±0.7 %) from the identical interval a yr in the past. The October 2021 to November 2021 % change was revised from up 0.3 % (±0.5 %)* to up 0.2 % (±0.3 %)*.

This is a chart of the information:

Real Retail Sales

Actual Retail Gross sales


In a single sense, this can be a disappointing report since its for December once we’d anticipate retail gross sales to peak. On the identical time, retail gross sales have been operating at a highly regarded stage since March. Since then they have been trending roughly sideways. Whereas declines are by no means welcome, the present excessive stage of gross sales considerably counter-balances the priority as a result of decline.

Lastly, industrial manufacturing declined:

Industrial manufacturing declined 0.1 % in December. Losses of 0.3 % for manufacturing and 1.5 % for utilities had been principally offset by a acquire of two.0 % for mining. For the fourth quarter as a complete, whole industrial manufacturing rose at an annual charge of 4.0 %. At 101.9 % of its 2017 common, whole industrial manufacturing in December was 3.7 % greater than it was on the finish of 2020 and 0.6 % above its pre-pandemic (February 2020) studying. Capability utilization for the commercial sector edged down 0.1 proportion level in December to 76.5 %, a charge that’s 3.1 proportion factors under its long-run (1972–2020) common.

Listed here are the 2 related charts detailing the report’s data:

Indusgrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial Manufacturing and Capability Utilization


Whereas industrial manufacturing declined (left) the general pattern continues to be greater. Capability utilization (proper) can also be rising.

Total, final week’s financial information was disappointing. Inflation is clearly a rising drawback which is able to power the Federal Reserve to behave sooner moderately than later. The decline in retail gross sales is disappointing. However the industrial manufacturing knowledge is extra impartial.

Turning to the charts, let’s take a look at the year-to-date data:

2-week charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM

2-week charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM


Within the first two weeks of the buying and selling yr, the general pattern is modestly decrease. All 4 index-tracking ETFs are under their respective 200-day EMAs whereas two (the DIA and IWM) are close to 2-week lows.

Let’s pull the lens far again and have a look at the 3-year perspective:

3 year charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM

3 yr charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM


Total, the large-cap indexes are nonetheless rallying greater. Small-caps have been trending sideways because the starting of final yr.

Let’s zero in a bit extra:

1-year charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM

1-year charts of the SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM


The SPY chart may be very clear; it is a normal southwest to northeast bullish chart with costs utilizing the short-term EMAs are technical assist. The DIA is a little more risky however nonetheless bullish. The QQQ could also be topping — an concept I developed a bit extra final week, whereas the IWM has been consolidating its put up lock-down rally for a yr.

Let’s fold this evaluation right into a broader macroeconomic perspective. There’s an previous merchants adage: “Do not battle the Fed.” Since we all know the Fed is elevating charges, we should always assume that shares will, at minimal, have extra upside resistance. However we will additionally have a look at the above charts to see a gradual slowing that began with the IWMs (the riskiest asset class) adopted by the gradual diminution of the QQQ’s upward trajectory. The SPY and DIA are nonetheless transferring greater, however the part firms of those averages are bigger so are extra in a position to face up to a slower development, greater charge atmosphere. However every has additionally seen an uptick in volatility, indicating merchants total are a bit extra nervous.

Assuming this total pattern continues, this might be a difficult yr for the markets.

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