Musk’s Twitter financing exams Wall Avenue’s mettle: ‘What might go flawed?’

It took simply days for banks throughout Wall Avenue to cobble collectively a $25.5bn financing package deal for Elon Musk’s bid for Twitter, an train that might usually take weeks. The velocity stumped Twitter’s advisers: how might banks’ buttoned-up danger administration committees get snug with the deal so shortly?

As one individual concerned within the debt financing defined, the due diligence “was simple. There was none. Not within the basic sense.”

The $44bn Twitter buyout exhibits how the Wall Avenue machine has grown extra snug with debt and its related dangers, notably when the individual in want of money is likely one of the wealthiest on the earth. It additionally raises questions on how far lenders are prepared to go to win enterprise — and profitable charges — and what may occur in the event that they misjudge the dangers.

On the centre of the talk is the worth of Tesla, the electrical automaker price $913bn that Musk leads. Musk’s stake within the firm is price greater than $150bn, and a part of these holdings had been used to safe a margin mortgage that makes up just below half of the $25.5bn of debt the banks have put ahead.

That wealth eased considerations for a lot of lenders, which accelerated due diligence processes on the behest of Morgan Stanley, Musk’s monetary adviser and one of many largest lenders on the deal. One lender advised the Monetary Occasions that for them, it was “not robust to get our arms round” the margin mortgage.

Lenders are nonetheless staring down one pink flag, although — it’s not clear how Musk plans to boost the remaining money wanted for the deal, which might attain as much as $21bn. There may be additionally uncertainty swirling across the worth of Tesla shares ought to its largest proprietor considerably money out.

Line chart of Tesla's equity valuation ($bn) showing Tesla stock is down nearly a fifth since Musk disclosed Twitter stake

Underwriters’ nerves are already being examined. Tesla’s inventory registered its largest day by day loss since September 2020 this week after the ink dried on the takeover, knocking $126bn from the corporate’s valuation.

The share worth might be intently watched by Musk’s lenders since it’s their collateral ought to he default on his mortgage. Bankers stated that safety gave them confidence that Musk and Twitter could be good for the debt, given the billionaire is unlikely to need to half with thousands and thousands of Tesla shares.

“What might go flawed?” requested a 3rd individual concerned in placing collectively the debt portion of the deal. “He’s actually the richest man on the earth. The mortgage is a small portion of his general wealth.” A banker near Musk added: “There may be $30bn of fairness plus or minus beneath us. We’re going to get our a reimbursement.”

Musk might promote between 15 and 20 per cent of his Tesla shares, however that straightforward transfer would probably result in further promoting by the chief govt to cowl $3bn to $4bn in capital positive aspects taxes, in keeping with an FT evaluation.

Lenders needn’t look far for one instance of how shortly issues can bitter when lending based mostly on a unstable inventory. A number of of the banks on Musk’s margin mortgage had been caught up within the separate implosion of Archegos final yr, racing to promote shares whereas the household workplace was collapsing. The declines ate up themselves as lenders dumped shares on the open market.

It’s unclear how receptive the market could be if Musk defaulted and the dozen banks offering him the $12.5bn margin mortgage needed to promote Tesla inventory suddenly.

Questions remain over how Musk will fund the $21bn equity cheque

Musk, in a letter to Twitter chair Bret Taylor, has stated he’s exploring how you can enable some present shareholders to spend money on the corporate as soon as it’s non-public. He has additionally held talks with non-public fairness group Thoma Bravo about teaming up on the deal, which would cut back the quantity of the cheque he finally has to put in writing and decrease the variety of Tesla shares probably up on the market, in keeping with folks briefed on the matter.

The speedy turnround by the banks underscores how considerably capital markets have advanced over the previous decade, as non-public fairness teams have moved deeper into credit score and the urge for food for lowly rated however higher-yielding debt has grown.

Even with out lengthy due diligence calls — or the personal data sometimes accessible to banks in leveraged buyouts — they recognise the dangers of holding on to the normal debt themselves. The banks underwriting the $13bn of loans, together with Financial institution of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, MUFG and Mizuho, are anticipated to maneuver shortly as soon as the deal is finalised to dump the debt from their stability sheets to credit score traders equivalent to Apollo International Administration.

That debt will eat a lot of Twitter’s money circulate within the coming years, in keeping with analysts, that means Musk could possibly be compelled to pay curiosity on his margin loans, cowl any shortfalls on the margin mortgage if Tesla inventory had been to fall sharply, and pump money into Twitter for curiosity funds.

“Is somebody like Musk, who has a web price of $275bn, going to let a $30bn fairness valuation for him go for $12bn of debt in a default?” one lender requested. “He would simply pay the debt down. It’s how a whole lot of banks bought snug [with the deal].”

Regardless, Musk will pile Twitter — and himself — with debt simply because the Federal Reserve raises rates of interest from rock-bottom ranges. Analysts with credit standing company S&P International warned this week that they anticipated to downgrade the corporate deep into junk territory if the takeover is consummated.

“Elon Musk’s proposed takeover of Twitter would trigger leverage to spike considerably,” Scott Zari, an analyst at S&P, stated. That “will increase dangers and uncertainty round potential adjustments in technique, administration, and governance”, he added.

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