Adobe Sees As much as $9.2 Billion in E-Commerce: Black Friday Replace


US retailers skilled what seems to be a muted Black Friday as excessive inflation and sagging client sentiment erode People’ demand for materials items. 

Bloomberg Information will probably be following the most recent developments as data turns into accessible all through the day. All time stamps mirror the US East Coast. 

Adobe Analytics Boosts Finish-of-Day Gross sales Estimate (7 p.m.)

On-line gross sales will rise to between $9 billion and $9.2 billion on Black Friday, Adobe Analytics mentioned in an e mail. That’s barely forward of the corporate’s earlier projection of $9 billion, which might symbolize a modest 1% enhance from final yr. With inflation working at nearly 8%, that also means many retailers are shedding floor in actual phrases.

Spending by 6 p.m. Japanese time had totaled $7.28 billion, Adobe mentioned. Sizzling sellers on Black Friday included Apple Watches and AirPods, sensible audio system and televisions, gaming consoles and espresso machines. In toys, Adobe known as out Hatchimals, Funko Pop! and Squishmallows as in style gadgets.

For the weekend, Adobe predicts on-line vacation spending of $4.52 billion on Saturday and $4.99 billion on Sunday. Consumers can anticipate reductions of as a lot as 17% on attire, 19% on sporting items and 34% on toys. However would-be laptop patrons are higher off ready for Monday, when reductions are anticipated to peak at 27% from the present stage of 17%.

Exercise Mild at One San Francisco Mall (4:40 p.m.) 

On the Stonestown mall in San Francisco, buyers had been few and much between. The Goal and Zara shops had been largely empty, and there was no line for the mall’s Santa Claus. Uniqlo and Apple had been the busiest places, however they nonetheless weren’t crowded. 

Black Friday Waits Exacerbated by Labor Scarcity (4:17 p.m.)

Longer wait occasions at some US shops on Black Friday are most likely because of the ongoing scarcity of retail employees — one slice of the bigger labor-supply points which have been hitting the nation for the reason that pandemic, mentioned Shannon Warner of consulting agency Kearney.

There are numerous extra open positions in retail this vacation season than in previous years, she mentioned. Consequently, some retailers have opened their shops for fewer hours every day by way of the yr. Whereas some retailers have prolonged their retailer hours for Black Friday, they may probably return to these shortened hours.

Retailers simply “don’t have sufficient individuals to workers the complete hours that they’ve traditionally had,” Warner mentioned. She mentioned she is encouraging retail shoppers to contemplate automation and different effectivity strikes, relatively than ready for the potential of an answer to the retail labor scarcity.

Knowledgeable Sees Retail Gross sales Matching Final Yr (4:21 p.m.) 

Black Friday is kicking off a vacation procuring season that’s prone to see modest to break-even development in annual gross sales, says Melissa Minkow, director of retail technique at digital consultancy CI&T.

“That’s nonetheless a win,” she mentioned. Within the UK, as an example, excessive inflation has precipitated customers to tug again noticeably on spending. “People haven’t behaved that method,” Minkow mentioned. “We’ve nonetheless been spending.”

The steep Black Friday reductions, although, are prone to ding corporations’ margins. “Earnings won’t be the place retailers need them to be,” Minkow mentioned. That’s partially as a result of they “couldn’t go all the inflationary prices off to customers.”

Thanksgiving By way of New Yr’s Is Massive for Restaurant Reward Playing cards (3:20 p.m.)

Thanksgiving Day is gradual for eating places, however the vacation marks the beginning of the interval through which the trade sells the vast majority of its present playing cards for the yr, in line with Credit score Suisse. The interval lasts by way of New Yr’s.

For the typical informal restaurant, the approaching weeks can account for greater than half of annual present card gross sales. Between 35% and 40% of redemptions occur within the first quarter. Many eating places are pushing for present card gross sales by providing clients bonus playing cards with low worth to make the acquisition extra interesting, as an example an additional $5 present card with the acquisition of 1 valued at $25, analysts led by Credit score Suisse analyst Lauren Silberman mentioned.

See additionally: Starbucks present playing cards eyed in grievance to SEC

Black Friday Offers Seen as Solely Barely Greater Than October Reductions (3:20 p.m.)

Customers are discovering deeper Black Friday reductions this yr versus 2021, however lots of this week’s promotions have really been in place since round October, says Jessica Ramirez, an analyst at Jane Hali & Associates.

In early October, the a number of dozen retail corporations that Ramirez covers launched reductions to clear extra merchandise — and the businesses have largely saved them in place by way of Black Friday. “I might have anticipated possibly one other 10% added as a deal for at present,” Ramirez mentioned. However “it’s just about the identical.” 

The retailers “are being pretty strategic,” she mentioned. They need to promote as a lot stock as they will whereas nonetheless defending revenue margins, she added, with corporations resembling Ulta, Macy’s, Coach and Ralph Lauren providing about the identical stage of promotions from a yr earlier. American Eagle Outfitters, the Hole and Lululemon are amongst these giving a better stage of promotions, she mentioned. Walmart and Goal are additionally providing extra reductions. 

Ramirez does, nevertheless, anticipate steeper reductions on Cyber Monday.

On the identical time, high-end manufacturers specifically have been in a position to elevate costs not too long ago — generally quicker than the tempo of inflation — due to excessive demand. Buyers and analysts need these corporations to carry on to these positive aspects, relatively than squander them throughout a promotional vacation season. 

“I hope that a variety of manufacturers discovered their lesson,” Ramirez mentioned.

Excessive-end purses had a median low cost charge of 30% on Thanksgiving, for instance, in line with knowledge from Salesforce.

Black Friday-Sized Offers Will Change into Scarce (1:41 p.m.)

The times main as much as and together with Cyber Monday is perhaps the height for vacation procuring this yr.

“The value-sensitive buyer desires to maximise worth, they’ve had little energy in doing that in the case of gasoline costs, meals costs or journey,” mentioned Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. “Many customers believed they’d get the very best reductions throughout Cyber Week, and now had been seeing them benefit from that.”

Retailers know that buyers are financially constrained. Black Friday and Cyber Monday enable corporations to beat the competitors on value. “That’s the technique that may assist them win on this setting,” Pandya mentioned. Nonetheless, reductions as deep as those being marketed on Black Friday will grow to be uncommon into December, which can make procuring “much less interesting for sure customers,” he mentioned.

Manufacturers at Each Ends of the Value Spectrum Draw Consumers in Albany (1:28 p.m.)

Round 10:30am at Crossgates Mall in Albany, New York, the extremely low-cost manufacturers and the higher-end buzzy retailers had probably the most foot visitors, whereas the middle-market shops had been desolate.

Hole Inc.-owned Previous Navy, which was providing 60% off most gadgets, had a line so lengthy that some buyers circled as quickly as they entered the shop. Athleisure favourite Lululemon Inc., which had just a few racks of discounted merchandise, and American Eagle Outfitters Inc.-owned Aerie, a well-liked intimates model amongst Gen Z buyers, additionally drew large crowds.

In the meantime, shops like Banana Republic, Macy’s and City Outfitters had no traces in any respect, and solely a handful of buyers.

Attire is the primary procuring class this vacation season, partially as a result of inflation-constrained buyers can get clothes gadgets as items at comparatively low costs, in line with Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte. Reductions as steep as 70% off style and equipment are the results of retailers’ efforts to each clear extra stock and seize demand when it’s at its peak.

“Actually there’s a need to win the weekend, not solely to liquidate extra stock but in addition to step in when the shopper is prepared to spend,” Sides mentioned.

Stamford Consumers Head to Victoria’s Secret (1:20 p.m.)

Crowds had been skinny within the late morning on the Stamford City Heart mall. Kay Jeweler, empty. Safavieh, empty. Solely a few individuals waited on the checkout line at Perpetually 21 and only a few had been in line for a purchase order at Barnes & Noble. At Victoria’s Secret, although, there have been greater than a dozen individuals within the queue.

For Gabriel Senatore, a São Paulo native who moved to the US 4 years in the past, procuring on Black Friday is an annual ritual. On the mall along with his five-month previous and his procuring associate, Angie Simionatto, he instructed Bloomberg he was looking out for footwear and child gear.  

Simionatto famous the mall was much less busy than she anticipated. “Very empty,” she mentioned. Their expedition had simply began they usually had already made a purchase order at Vans, but when they will’t discover all the things they’re in search of, they’ve a backup plan: “Amazon. Cyber Monday,” Senatore mentioned.

By 12:30 p.m., at the least, the crowds on the mall had begun to choose up a bit.

In Westchester, ‘Not That Totally different Than Traditional’ (12:55 p.m.)

The Goal retailer in Mount Vernon, New York, had reductions on gadgets resembling hair equipment, off 30%, and winter boots for girls, off 40%. There have been markdowns on electronics, too: A 55-inch Samsung TV was discounted to $350 from $630. However the retailer was solely about twice as busy as standard, and most buyers had been solely strolling out with a modest quantity of purchases.

“The gross sales are OK. It’s not that totally different than standard,” mentioned Cynthia Carroll, 58, who was with a relative who had purchased a present for her: a Cuisinart AirFryer toaster that was discounted to $159 from $229.

A Mattress Bathtub & Past retailer in the identical complicated marketed reductions of 40% to 75%, however the event was a going-out-of-business sale, not Black Friday. Many of the retailer’s cabinets had been already barren, and no vacation music accompanied the deliberations on discounted sheet units and movie frames.

Salesforce’s Garf: Inflation Boosting Gross sales Complete (12:55 p.m.)

The 9% enhance in on-line gross sales within the US on Thanksgiving Day, reported by Salesforce, is basically fueled by the best inflation in many years, mentioned Rob Garf, vice chairman of retail on the firm.

“Persons are simply plainly shopping for much less merchandise as a result of their greenback isn’t going so far as it used to,” Garf mentioned.

Because the rising value of gasoline and groceries makes many customers extra cautious to considerably enhance spending, they’re in search of — and discovering — main reductions. On Thanksgiving Day, the deepest value cuts had been on residence home equipment and attire, in line with Salesforce. 

Additionally making an look on the prime of the checklist had been high-end purses, which Salesforce mentioned had been seeing a median low cost charge of 30%. That’s notable as a result of high-end manufacturers have largely kept away from main markdowns prior to now two years given sturdy demand. 

‘Feels Like a Regular Day’ in Chicago (12:14 p.m.)

At a Goal retailer on Chicago’s North Aspect, the car parking zone was barely half full at about 9 a.m. native time. Consumers had been greeted with $3 ornaments and discounted Christmas timber when coming into, and the shop appeared calm and comparatively quiet.

“It appears like a standard day,” mentioned Miguel Martinez, 35, who mentioned he awakened early and determined to return take a look at the Black Friday offers along with his 12-year-old daughter, Jaylen. He described the reductions as “fairly good,” and pointed to a few Amazon Echo Dot sensible audio system that he picked up for $13 from the electronics division.

In his cart, Martinez additionally had toys for family and friends, together with Nerf weapons and a Disney Encanto doll. Martinez, a warehouse supervisor, mentioned inflation has made him reduce on sure issues for himself like cable TV and Netflix in latest months to afford presents for his 4 youngsters. “I actually do it for the children,” he mentioned.

In Goal’s toy division, Therese Pociask, 60, was searching for her personal small residence day-care heart, and in addition for items for her nieces and nephews. In her cart had been an Epsom-salt present pack, Fujifilm Instax digicam movie, three stuffed dinosaurs and a puzzle.

“I’m in search of gross sales and offers,” she mentioned. “This one is fairly good,” she mentioned pointing to a buy-one-get-one-50%-off toy low cost.

“I’m attempting to not reduce,” Pociask mentioned of the vacations this yr. She’s planning to spend about $2,000 — about the identical as final yr — in whole for all her household and the day-care, however says inflation is making it robust to get all her procuring finished with out overspending.

“I’m attempting to remain inside my funds, however I’m discovering I’ve to spend extra for it to look the identical,” she mentioned.

Offers Sweeter This Yr Than Final, Salesforce Says (12:14 p.m.) 

Customers are discovering higher offers this procuring season than final yr, in line with knowledge from Salesforce Inc.

The typical client low cost charge for Thanksgiving Day buyers on-line within the US was 31%, Salesforce says. That’s 7% greater than 2021, when retailers didn’t need to put as many gadgets on sale as a result of demand was robust and a variety of merchandise was held up at snarled ports.

However this yr’s Thanksgiving Day reductions — which set the stage for higher promotions on Black Friday and over the weekend — are nonetheless barely decrease than 2019 ranges, when the typical charge was 33%, in line with Salesforce.

After a few irregular years, the begin to this vacation season exhibits that developments are normalizing when it comes to low cost ranges and timing. 

Final yr, US customers shopped comparatively earlier on issues that supply-chain issues would result in an absence of merchandise. “We questioned whether or not the patron can be reconditioned to purchase early and what the info present us thus far is that buyers have snapped again,” mentioned Rob Garf, vice chairman of retail at Salesforce. “Life considerably feels regular once more and procuring additionally feels considerably regular once more.”

Thinner Black Friday Crowds Seen Going Ahead (12:14 p.m.)

Whereas the pandemic impression could also be waning, there nonetheless appears to be a notable lack of crowds at many shops.  

Whereas visitors ranges appear greater than a yr earlier, “we predict the historic raucous ambiance of Black Friday could also be prior to now,” writes Piper Sandler analyst Edward Yruma in a analysis observe, who says that is his group’s 18th yr of “multistate” Black Friday retailer visits.

The relative calm could also be attributed to promotions that “positively shifted” to earlier within the yr on the heels of Amazon’s October Prime Early Entry Sale. Moreover, each Walmart and Goal have run “aggressive promotions” all through November and different attire retailers started promotions earlier within the week, he mentioned.

Whereas in-store visitors has improved from the pandemic-related slowdowns in 2020 and 2021, it hasn’t returned to earlier ranges. 

One Mother Seeks Sneakers and Cologne at a Quiet Macy’s in Connecticut (11:55 a.m.)

The Macy’s in Stamford, Connecticut, was neat and orderly — possibly a little bit too neat and orderly on a day related to procuring chaos. The furnishings part was practically abandoned, although there have been extra buyers footwear.

Kris Adler, a mom of two teenage sons in her mid-fifties, mentioned she was in search of “festive footwear” for herself, and eyed a black, high-top sparkly sneaker. Her sons had already supplied her with a listing of largely sporting gear and cologne, she mentioned. “The younger males are large on cologne,” she instructed Bloomberg. She got here procuring because of the 13-year-old who knew the schedules and wished one thing to do, she mentioned. “Some algorithm on no matter platform he’s utilizing — anyone received him,” she mentioned.

Reductions all through the shop diversified, with racks of children clothes marked down 60%, although the Adidas observe fits had solely 25% off.

On the checkout line within the toys part, the place there was no wait, the teller mentioned the shop had ready for extra buyers, and thanked this reporter for coming.

Beware Retail Business Shares, Analyst Says (11:05 a.m.)

One buy buyers ought to suppose twice about in the course of the holidays is retail shares, says Michael Baker, an analyst at D.A. Davidson.

Don’t get him fallacious, he’s bullish on the sector for 2023. However “retail nearly at all times underperforms from the day after Thanksgiving by way of yr finish,” he mentioned in a observe to shoppers. “From a tactical perspective, we advise shorter-term warning on the group.”

Going again to 2010, retailer shares on common have been little modified in the course of the vacation season, whereas the S&P 500 has climbed 1.8%, Baker mentioned. And retail trade shares have lagged 9 of the final 12 years. The worst performers are inclined to have the best vacation publicity resembling Finest Purchase Co. and Dick’s Sporting Items Inc. In contrast, Lowe’s Cos. and House Depot Inc. have been safer bets throughout this time of the yr, he mentioned.

In a separate report, Cowen & Co. analyst Oliver Chen named Macy’s Inc., Walmart Inc. and Ulta Magnificence Inc. as his “prime Black Friday vacation shares.” Every will profit from product diversification and worth positioning, he mentioned.

Customers More likely to Store Later, Cowen Says (11:01 a.m.)

US buyers will most likely return to one among their pre-pandemic habits this yr: procrastination. That’s in line with Oliver Chen, a retail analyst at Cowen & Co., and there’s good cause for it given the trade backdrop.

Amid final yr’s supply-chain snarls, the concern of discovering empty cabinets prompted many customers to refill on vacation merchandise early within the season. Now, many retailers are struggling to pare bloated inventories, and that’s pushing them to return to pre-pandemic discounting ranges. Consumers, in the meantime, are struggling to maintain up with inflation.

Consequently, extra US customers will take a wait-and-see strategy this yr in hopes that retail costs will get even decrease as Christmas will get nearer, Chen mentioned. There’s additionally a calendar impact, with an additional Saturday between Thanksgiving and Christmas. He predicts a vacation gross sales enhance of 5% to 7%, down from final yr’s achieve of virtually 14%. The five-year common is 6.7%, Chen mentioned, citing Nationwide Retail Federation knowledge.

Shopify Sees Greater Thanksgiving Acquire Than Adobe (9:40 a.m.) 

Knowledge from software program supplier Shopify Inc., which powers e-commerce platforms for small companies, present that the typical spend per cart on Thanksgiving Day was 3.8% greater than final yr. That may not level to greater gross sales volumes, however as an alternative will increase in costs on account of greater inflation. 

The Shopify knowledge additionally confirmed a rise within the variety of gross sales made on cell telephones relatively than on desktops, suggesting that extra customers had been in search of offers whereas away from their desks. The attire and equipment class was the highest vendor within the US yesterday, adopted by well being and sweetness, Shopify discovered.

Thanksgiving Gross sales Rise 2.9%, Adobe Says (9:40 a.m.)

On-line gross sales climbed 2.9% to $5.29 billion on Thanksgiving Day, Adobe Analytics mentioned Friday. That’s barely forward of Adobe’s estimate for the general vacation season, which the corporate sees increasing 2.5% from final yr. On Black Friday itself, Adobe predicts solely a 1% enhance in on-line gross sales, to $9 billion.

Taking a step again, these numbers — which aren’t adjusted for inflation — present the problem going through retailers. The US client value index climbed 7.7% in the course of the 12 months ending in October. So with e-commerce rising within the low single digits, unit gross sales are most likely down.

Salesforce, utilizing a unique methodology, reported a extra sturdy 9% achieve in on-line gross sales to $7.5 billion. Exercise jumped between 6 p.m. and 10 p.m. Japanese time and 78% of visitors got here by way of cellphones, suggesting that individuals did a variety of procuring from the sofa after their Thanksgiving meals.

UK Deliveries Crunched by Postal Strike (9:40 a.m.) 

One of many challenges for UK retailers this Black Friday will probably be how you can ship items purchased on-line. UK postal employees at Royal Mail are placing over pay and circumstances on Nov. 24 and 25 with additional walkouts deliberate within the leadup to Christmas, the busiest time of yr. Inc., an enormous discounter for Black Friday, is making deliveries utilizing e-bikes in key British cities to scale back its emissions. The net behemoth has opened e-bike supply hubs in Manchester and London in time for the low cost occasion. Amazon is investing £300 million ($362 million) over 5 years to scale back its transport emissions within the UK.

Retailers are in search of to ease the load on warehouse workers on the busiest time of yr. UK electronics retailer Currys Plc has spent greater than £250,000 on “robotic exoskeleton fits” to assist warehouse employees unfold the burden of lifting heavy masses and forestall accidents. Currys says its distribution website in Newark, England, will ship 8.7 million models of inventory this Black Friday interval, with the retailer providing as a lot as £500 off televisions.

Pitney Bowes Says Gen Z Extra More likely to Purchase On-line (8:26 a.m.) 

Half of Gen Z customers who participated in a Pitney Bowes survey say they’ll be procuring on-line extra this season throughout Black Friday and Cyber Monday than they did final yr. Throughout age teams, one in 4 customers plan to buy on-line extra this yr.

Youthful customers are extra comfy with on-line procuring, Pitney Bowes mentioned in a separate report. And Gen Z is extra prone to buy from digital manufacturers that don’t have bodily shops and promote on Instagram and TikTok.

With inflation placing the squeeze on vacation budgets, many customers are trying on-line for offers. As retailers attempt to offload a glut of stock, promotions received’t be arduous to search out.

Sizzling Wheels, Paw Patrol Are Prime Sellers (8:26 a.m.) 

Along with monitoring on-line gross sales totals, Adobe Analytics has been maintaining a tally of scorching sellers in the course of the first three weeks of November. The checklist contains some perennial favorites resembling air fryers, sensible audio system and Apple iPads. The Nintendo Change is the top-selling gaming console, whereas brisk-selling toys embrace Sizzling Wheels and Paw Patrol. Amongst classes, kitchenware gross sales are up 155% from October, which is a aid for retailers since residence items have been slumping this yr. Additionally rising: buy-now-pay-later choices, as buyers’ financial savings accounts dwindle and inflation takes a toll.

Inditex Employees Begin the Vacation Season With a Strike (8:11 a.m.)

Inditex, the proprietor of the Zara style chain, is going through two days of strikes in its residence market as the vacation procuring season begins. As many as 13 retailers closed on Thursday within the Spanish province of A Coruña, in Galicia, as employees walked off their jobs to demand a €440 ($458) month-to-month pay enhance for workers incomes €1,058. Unions are anticipated to close many of the 44 Inditex-owned retailers within the province, together with a five-floor flagship Zara retailer within the heart of A Coruña metropolis.

The protest highlights rising calls for from employees for wage will increase within the face of hovering costs. Regardless of the cost-of-living disaster, Inditex has been in a position to go on prices to buyers and posted its greatest revenue margins in seven years in September.

Fewer Presents Anticipated Amid Excessive Inflation (7:34 a.m.)

Inflation, not the Grinch, is stealing Christmas this yr. Greater than half (51%) of the 1,000-plus respondents to a RetailMeNot vacation developments survey say they’re dealing with sky-high inflation this yr by buying fewer items.

Polled buyers plan to spend $725 for the vacations — 8% lower than final yr. Greater than a 3rd (36%) say they’re going to make use of extra coupons to handle greater costs. And 22% say they’re going to buy extra used gadgets.

RetailMeNot’s knowledge additionally present that 53% of respondents plan to buy on Black Friday and 55% will store Cyber Monday. Many customers have already began, with 52% benefiting from pre-Black Friday offers.

E-Commerce Development Seen Slowing (7:34 a.m.)

Retailers’ digital gross sales stay greater than in 2019, however development has decelerated from the previous two years, mentioned David Bassuk, world co-head of the retail apply at consulting agency AlixPartners. Customers are nonetheless utilizing on-line channels to get a way for what offers can be found, however that received’t be the one choice this yr.

“The shops are again,” Bassuk mentioned. “The significance of the gross sales affiliate within the retailer is rising as soon as once more.”

Black Friday Minus Thanksgiving: UK Stays Lively (7:02 a.m.)

With inflation working on the highest in additional than 4 many years within the UK, buyers are actively in search of bargains this Black Friday. Nearly 70% of British buyers plan to take part within the low cost occasion imported from the US, up from 57% final yr, in line with McKinsey & Co. On-line searches for Black Friday gross sales have risen by 1 / 4 since final yr.

With most individuals within the UK not celebrating Thanksgiving, Black Friday has morphed right into a weeklong and in some circumstances a monthlong occasion. It began even sooner than regular this yr as retailers attempt to encourage buyers to spend. British division retailer John Lewis Partnership Plc and drugstore chain Boots each supplied offers from the beginning of the month. 

Adobe Sees 2.5% Development — With out Inflation (12:01 a.m.)

A key query this Black Friday will probably be how a lot greater costs are contributing to raised gross sales numbers.

General spending this vacation season is seen rising 2.5% from a yr in the past, in contrast with 8.6% final yr and a whopping 32% in 2020, in line with knowledge from Adobe Inc. These figures aren’t adjusted for inflation, that means that gross sales might be down by quantity provided that client costs are up 7.7% from a yr in the past.

Telsey Sees Earnings Amid Reductions as Key (12:01 a.m.) 

Success for retailers this vacation season will probably be decided by which corporations can keep their reductions and nonetheless come out worthwhile, mentioned Dana Telsey, chief government officer of Telsey Advisory Group, in a Nov. 23 interview on Bloomberg Tv. There’s nonetheless extra stock “to get by way of as we enter the vacation season, which goes to result in good offers and good values for the patron,” she mentioned.

Telsey additionally mentioned that brick-and-mortar gross sales are prone to get an enormous enhance this yr as a result of “now we have not had any such in-person searching for two years in the course of the vacation season” on account of Covid-19.

–With help from Daniela Sirtori-Cortina, Clara Hernanz Lizarraga, Katie Linsell, Brendan Case, Tiffany Kary, Jeannette Neumann, Janet Freund, Leslie Patton and Tonya Garcia.

(An earlier model corrected a month within the introduction.)

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